ALBANY- The state independent redistricting commission has released a draft of their proposed congressional districts, which appear to shore up at least two Hudson Valley incumbents, one Democrat and one Republican.
In December of 2023, in a four-to-three decision, the state’s highest court ruled that the state’s Independent Redistricting Commission (IRC) would return to the drawing board for New York’s 26 Congressional districts ahead of the 2024 election. The court decided that maps drawn by a special master in 2022 would be used only for one election cycle and the maps released today are the results of that commission’s court-ordered work.
Some of the most notable changes in the state-wide map released on Thursday afternoon impact the Hudson Valley. The 18th Congressional District, represented by Democrat Pat Ryan, features a more favorable electorate for a Democrat. The district would include all of Ulster County and shed Republican portions of the current district located in Western Orange County.
In the same fashion, the 19th Congressional District, represented by Republican Marc Molinaro would become more favorable for a Republican, losing notably blue portions of Ulster County in exchange for red portions of Orange.
Upon first glance, it appears little or no change is proposed for the 17th Congressional District which is presently represented by Congressman Mike Lawler.
The state legislature, by a supermajority vote, will have to approve the IRC’s plan before it becomes law. While Democrats have supermajorities in both the State Senate and Assembly, not all members of the majority are happy with the commission’s proposed maps.
State Senator James Skoufis (D, Cornwall) released a statement that read in part, “After almost two years of hand-wringing and legal battling for a fair congressional map, the only thing “bipartisan” about the Independent Redistricting Commission’s proposal is that both parties are seeking to protect their incumbents. In fact, the most meaningful edit to the map sacrifices Orange County at the altar of partisanship splitting the currently-unified county into two congressional districts in an attempt to protect one incumbent from each party.”
Skoufis also said the legislature should reject the IRC’s proposal, which came just a few weeks ahead of the February 28 deadline by the court for the commission to finish its work.
There are Republicans who are unhappy with the change as well, including Alison Esposito, who has declared her candidacy in the 18th District and is planning a run against Ryan.
“In 2022, New York’s Congressional Districts were re-drawn after a lengthy process, creating fair, balanced maps. That did not stop New York Democrats from their games, and yet again, we are here re-drawing Congressional lines so close to an election,” she said. “These current maps should stay in place, and Albany should stop with the political games that New Yorkers are sick and tired of.”
Dave Wasserman, Senior Editor & Elections Analyst of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report provided an analysis of the maps on the social media platform X, stating, “If passed, the net effect would be to diminish the competitiveness of the map in Upstate New York, with a very slight benefit to Democrats – but nowhere near the windfall Republicans feared from an aggressive gerrymander.”
Wasserman’s initial analysis was that Ryan’s district would go from a Biden +8 to a Biden +11 district and Molinaro’s would go from a Biden +5 to a Biden +1, making it more likely for each incumbent to be reelected this November.
It is not clear when the state legislature would take up a vote on the proposed maps. Legislators are off next week and are slated to return to Albany on February 26.
A copy of the proposed maps can be found HERE.
