Hudson Valley congressional seats on nationwide target list once again

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All 435 seats of the U.S. House will be up for grabs in 2024.

WASHINGTON – The Cook Political Report, a nationwide leader in election forecasting and analysis, released its first 2024 House Race Ratings on Thursday. Based in Arlington, Va., Cook’s ratings represent an unofficial beginning to the political prognostication that will occur over the next two calendar years.

The report provides an early snapshot of the state of play as both major parties continuously jockey for the upper hand in an election more than a year and a half away, one that will include contests for 34 U.S. Senate seats and the Presidency.

Among the seats categorized as the most competitive in the nation are all three of the Hudson Valley-based New York 17th, 18th, and 19th congressional districts, a familiar place for them in recent years. NY-17 and NY-19, held respectively by freshmen Reps. Mike Lawler (R) and Marc Molinaro (R), are in the always-challenging ‘Toss Up’ column. Toss-ups are the most competitive seats in the country, and according to Cook, “either party has a good chance of winning.” Rep. Pat Ryan (D) finds his NY-18 district in the slightly more forgiving ‘Lean Democrat’ column. The Lean category is still highly competitive but one party starts with a decided advantage, usually due to factors such as incumbency, fundraising, and district profile. All three seats will attract tens of millions of dollars in campaign and super PAC spending and likely help decide partisan control of Congress, as they did in 2022.

Michael Lawler

Lawler’s presence in the Toss Up column has the Rockland County native and former state Assemblyman unfazed. “Having twice defeated long-term Democrat incumbents in districts with significant Democrat enrollment advantages, I’m confident that our message and the work that we are doing on behalf of the 17th district will continue to garner broad bipartisan support. Regardless of the rankings by political prognosticators, many of whom didn’t believe we could win in 2022, we will continue to be successful and do the work we were elected to do,” he told Mid-Hudson News. When asked about his party’s chances to retain control of the House and grow its current razor-thin majority, Lawler said, “The road to the majority runs through New York. I’m confident we will build on our successes in 2022 and grow our Republican majority, which serves as a necessary check and balance on the Biden administration, in 2024.”

The magic number to secure a majority is 218 out of the 435 seats which make up the U.S. House of Representatives. Right now Republicans hold 222, and Cook rates 69 of the total as competitive, but all are contested on the same two-year cycle, leading to Washington’s often turbulent governing conditions. In last year’s cycle, Lawler’s upset victory over longtime incumbent Sean Patrick Maloney in the 17th district—which stretches from the Tappan Zee Bridge to southern Dutchess County—was the tipping point, securing control of the lower chamber for Republicans and flipping the balance of power heading into the 118th Congress. Per Cook, history suggests conditions entering this cycle could favor Republicans as the House has not changed control in a presidential election year since 1952 nor flipped to the party in the White House since 1948.

Of note, embattled freshman Rep. George Santos (R) of NY-03, who lied about his resume and now faces an onslaught of ethics and campaign finance investigations, is the only seat projected by Cook to favor a potential challenger from the outset.




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